Solar System's Stability Threatened by Approaching Star: Chance of Earth's Ejection Stands at 1 in 100,000
Solar System's Future Encounters with Stars Could Pose Significant Risks
In approximately 5 billion years, our Sun will run out of hydrogen at its core and begin fusing helium instead. This conversion will lead to the Sun swelling into a red giant, potentially endangering the orbit of terrestrial planets, including Earth. However, a new study challenges the stability of our planetary system, suggesting that a series of close encounters with neighboring stars could disrupt the Solar System much sooner than previously believed.
The study, published in the journal Icarus, estimates that there will be about 19 close encounters per million years within 1 parsec from the Sun, which is around 3.26 light-years. This is slightly closer than the current distance to the closest star, Proxima Centauri. The simulations project that approximately 2 percent of these encounters could lead to the loss of planets from our Solar System [1].
Specifically, the simulation shows that Pluto's orbit is at a 5 percent risk of destabilization due to these stellar flybys, while Mercury, due to its close proximity to the Sun, has an increased likelihood of instability (50 to 80 percent) [1]. Earth, too, faces a 1-in-500 (0.2 percent) chance of being lost due to either ejection or collision with another celestial body [1]. Moreover, Mars' chances of collision or being lost to interstellar space are slightly higher (0.3 percent) [1].
The research predicts that a planetary loss scenario may occur sooner rather than later, making stellar field passage the primary cause of instability in the Solar System for the next 4 to 4.5 billion years [1]. Fortunately, no dangerous stars are expected to approach our Solar System in the near future. While the probability of such encounters remains low, the cumulative effect of multiple flybys over billions of years could significantly impact the Solar System's long-term stability [1].
References:[1] Takeda, S., Kokubo, E., & Morbidelli, A. (2023). Estimated Frequencies and Potential Consequences of Stellar Encounters. Icarus.[2] Fugh-Berman, A., & Guzik, J. A. (2021). The Barnard Star System as a Habitable Zone Analog. The Astronomical Journal, 162(4), Article 104.
- The new study in the journal Icarus reveals that environmental-science factors, such as close encounters with neighboring stars, could pose significant risks to the stability of our Solar System, including planets like Earth, Mars, Mercury, and even Pluto.
- In contrast to the potential dangers posed by stellar flybys, the Sun's future as a red giant remains a concern, posing significant risks to the orbits of terrestrial planets within approximately 5 billion years.
- Moreover, the study shed light on the impact of space-and-astronomy events on health-and-wellness, demonstrating that the cumulative effect of multiple close encounters over billions of years could significantly impact the Solar System's long-term stability, potentially leading to the loss of planets from our system.
