Ditching the old, welcoming the new: Vietnam's shift from the two-child policy to a family-size decision
Decline in Vietnam's Birth Rate: Government Repeals Two-Child Policy Regulation
In a surprising turn of events, Vietnam's communist government has abolished its long-standing two-child policy, as announced by the national news agency. This leap aims to counter the country's shrinking birth rate. Initially imposed in 1988, the two-child limit has now become a personal choice for Vietnamese families.
Over the past few years, Vietnam has witnessed a sharp decline in its birth rate. In 2023, the figure dropped to 1.91 children per woman, falling below the needed replacement threshold. This trend saw the birth rate plummet from 2.11 in 2021, down to 2.01 in 2022, and further to 1.96 in 2023. This downward spiral is noticeable in economically prosperous regions, particularly major cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, where living expenses continue to soar.
At the beginning of the year, Deputy Health Minister Nguyen Thi Lien Huong highlighted the mounting challenges in motivating families to expand their households at a conference. The dip in the birth rate appears to be a daunting obstacle in the long run as it threatens economic growth and leads to an aging population and labor shortages.
Needless to say, Vietnam is battling a gender imbalance that stems from a historic preference for boys. As such, it is illegal for clinics to reveal a child's sex before birth or to perform abortions based on the baby's gender. Clinics found guilty face hefty fines. In a move to deter violations further, the health ministry has recently suggested tripling the existing fine to $3,800 (€3,340).
Sources: ntv.de, AFP
Behind the Scenes:
- Vietnam's Population Policies Evolution: In 2025, the two-child policy has been done away with, marking a shift towards coping with falling fertility rates and an aging population1. The Ministry of Health is presently drafting Vietnam's first Population Law, which aims to modernize family planning strategies and tackle demographic issues. This law is set to be presented to the National Assembly later in 20251.
- Sub-Replacement Fertility Rate: Vietnam's fertility rate has dropped below the replacement level, nudging the government to rethink its population policies. The rate stood approximately 2.0 in 2020, just shy of the 2.1 replacement rate2.
- Economic and Societal Ramifications: The declining birth rate and aging population pose significant economic and social challenges. These challenges range from a growing demand for geriatric healthcare services to retirement living solutions and elderly insurance products1.
- Amidst the evolution of Vietnam's population policies, the community policy will play a significant role in shaping the public's acceptance of the shift towards personal family-size decisions.
- As Vietnam's first Population Law is being drafted by the Ministry of Health, it aims to integrate the latest science and health-and-wellness research to ensure the best outcomes for the population.
- Fitness-and-exercise programs could potentially be incorporated into employment policies to promote a healthier workforce and combat the effects of an aging population.
- In the face of an escalating gender imbalance, sexual-health education and resources may be included in the new employment policy to address this issue and promote equality in family planning.
- Employment policy might need to accommodate family-health concerns, with flexible work arrangements and parental leave for both mothers and fathers, to ensure a balance between work and family life.
- Collaborative efforts between the government, private sector, and non-profit organizations can lead to the development of mental-health programs within employment policies, creating a supportive environment for employees.
- Mens-health initiatives can be incorporated into the employment policy to tackle specific health concerns that men in Vietnam may face, addressing areas such as prostate and testicular cancer.
- Aging-related policies may be introduced into the employment policy to address the needs of an aging workforce, such as retirement benefits and employment opportunities for seniors.
